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Archive for June 2007

Jun/07

29

Happy Birthday to me!

Birthday Cake 

Happy Birthday to Me…
Happy Birthday to Me… …
Happy Birthday to Me… … …
Happy Birthday to Me!

Yeap, That’s my birthday! I had a great day today, and guess what? i recieve a lil present from my sister that look like this…

 Birthday GiftTable Lamp

Very nice of a 电灯胆 here! It will be very useful in the middle of the night as I’ll work with my projects~

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I just spent 4 hours of my sleeping time to read this book called “The Secreet To Emotion Free Trading” written by Larry Levin, quite an interesting book that illustrate the author personal emotional experience during his trading life as this books organized it self into 3 major parts:

  1. Skills that you do need
  2. Skills that you don’t need
  3. Self improvement

Great book for after you are involved in trading, It is quite a good self-decipline book that is easy to read and straight forward.

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Jun/07

2

Truth in casino odds and payout.

RouletteYo Yo!, long time no blog, what had i been up to? well many interesting ideas of course!

I went to genting last month and of course I can’t miss the fun in casino, I personally like gamble so much, (like, not addicted) But I’m not satisfy to the payout at all, I don’t like to be cheated!

I calculate a complete odds and payout chart to calculate the winning chance. You will find that you loose in the long run. It doesn’t takes too long for the house present its edge in as little as 1,000 rounds.

Let’s start from the game roulette. Roulette is the most fair game where the payout is distributed evenly on every types of bet combination, as well as the winning chance is the closest to 50% among all other game offered in Genting (blackjack are not included in the discussion here).

Here is the house chart for Single zero Roulette:

Bet Type Probability Payout Investment recovery
Single Number Bet 1 of 37 35 to 1 97.3%
Split Bet (any 2 numbers in a row) 2 of 37 17 to 1 97.3%
Street Bet (any 3 numbers in a row) 3 of 37 11 to 1 97.3%
Square Bet (any 4 numbers in a group) 4 of 37 8 to 1 97.3%
Line Bet (any 6 numbers in a group) 6 of 37 5 to 1 97.3%
Column / Dozen Bet (any 12 numbers in a column) 12 of 37 2 to 1 97.3%
Red / Black / 1 to 18 / 19 to 36 / Odd / Even 18 of 37 1 to 1 97.3%

As you can see here, you are loosing 2.7% every spin you play, this is how casino makes money. There is not any method of combination can beat the house edge, not even the timing can affect the winning chance, roulette ball falls into the hole by nearly pure random.

I used to have many foolish idea trying to beat this roulette such as Martingale system (aka doubling up), entry exit at right moment, betting 34 of 37 numbers. I build a gambling analysis software by simulating millions of spin per hour just to test out variouse Myths and betting system that i can think of. Now I have the answers.

Martingale

Martingale is very interesting idea, you double your bet when ever your lose, keep doing it and you can almost guaranty to recover your loss plus a token of wins.

However the risk involve are way too high, it may cost you up to thousands just to gain a dollar, and often you have to are forced to give up when you hit the limit of your chips, or you had reached the ceiling of the bet limit. So far I won 200 bucks till date :p, but I’m not going to use this system anymore ever.

Timing

Once I had an idea of betting at the right moment. Many had told me that it is rare to have 10 blacks in a row, it is very probably to come out red. So by common sense, people will started to place bets on Red as it goes. The hard truth is, this is not a car dealing game, the result you see on this spin will not affect the following result, this means the chances of the ball falling into black after 10 black streak are still suprisingly 48.6%.

If you only start playing after at least 8 streaks or more, you will soon realised that you often challanged with unbelievable 16, 22 black streaks!. This is because of the untold implication result from the pure randomness of the roulette ball. Come on!, this is not stock market, there is no such thing as Timing!

Betting 34 of 37 numbers

This once fools me, and it will never again.

Initially I was thinking of finding a way of win more frequent while leverage down to earn lesser just to gain some insurance. I came out an idea of betting almost all numbers. Initially it worked, I won 97% of the time, but after a long run I started to realised that although i’m winning more frequent, the payout isn’t gonna give me a positive ROI. foolish me…..

So whats the most fair method to play on roulette?

This answers is not created by me, this result is proposed by roulette simulation analysis software. To have a fair and safe, bet red (or any 1 to 1 bets) all night long. It is the most secured, low risk, and stable outcome, “predictable”……. you can ever find in the entire casino.

 

Motivation tips

Others than the odds and payout presented from my simulator, there is also one crucial piece of information that I must share. I once set “What if the roulette has player edge by +0.1%”, and with RM 1,000 on hand, 8 hours available for gamble, I will profit about RM 90 per night.

But wait a minute, isn’t working in office for 8 hours can earn you more than 90 bucks? with better comfort chair, good enviroment, employee benefit:p, and much more meaningful things to do while you alive?

 

Happy Betting!

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