If you toss a coin up and catch it, what would it be? is it a Head, or Tail? The chances is believe to be 50/50. But knowing that does not tells you anything about what most likely to occur next. My goal is to find some sort of ways to solve this problem, guessing what will occur in the next event based on a series of past histories.
Indepth:
For the coin scenario, getting a head and tail are in equal chance. But if you get a head, it does not mean that you can get a tail right away. Only after a number attempt, you probably get the occurance of head and the occurance of tail are close to 50/50. This tells us altough we know that the probability is 50/50, there is a certain bias of result, called variance (I know nothing about this equation, its just a term that people used).
To find out what most likely to occur next, we cannot rely on the figure from probability alone, we need to make use of Probability + Variance + History Samples + Distribution Curves. I try to study more on these before i can continue my ultimate goal!
Lets skip all the stories and here some facts…
- After a certain number attempts of coing tossing, we will come to a conclusion of 50/50 chances: Yes
- Measuring the frequency of occurance, We find a graph that closely matches to a halflife curve: f(x)=f(x-1)/2.
- What is the best value for numbers of attempt suitable to be used to determin a good samples size?: Not known yet
More comming soon.
No tags
